A horse being led
A couple of the many confusing things about the English language is that words with the same spelling can be pronounced differently (there are so many of these that there is a special name for them: homographs), and also that words with different spellings can be pronounced the same way (these are called homophones). Lead (pronounced to rhyme with bleed), meaning the act of having animals or people following, and lead (pronounced to rhyme with bed), meaning the heavy chemical element are homographs (same spelling, different pronunciation).
Just to be really tricky, lead (the element) also has a homophone: led, which is the simple past tense and also the past participle of the verb to lead.
Some examples might help.
When we are talking about the act of leading others (whether people or animals), the form of the word and the pronunciation changes depending on whether we are using a past or present (or future) tense. The spelling and pronunciation change for the past tense, from the main verb lead to led.
- Kamala Harris may lead the USA as president after this week’s election but she has led the country in some ways in her role as vice president.
Vice President Kamala Harris, a political leader, announcing the replacement of pipes made from the chemical lead.
Lead, the element that has been mined since ancient times and has been used in many ways, some of them quite toxic, is always pronounced to rhyme with bed. Whether you are writing or talking about lead ore, lead pencils, lead paint, lead type, lead pipes or lead poisoning, there is only one spelling and one pronunciation.
Lead (the substance) is renowned for its heaviness – the saying as heavy as lead is used because lead is very heavy! Lead was used in the past to make the weights that horses carried in their saddlebags in races to increase the weight they carried to the amount allocated to them by the handicapper for a race. These days, the weights are no longer made from lead, but they are still slipped into pockets attached to the very tiny modern racing saddles.
A weight being added to the pocket of an Australian-made racing saddle
And this discussion of saddles and weights leads of course to my Melbourne Cup tips . . .
Melbourne Cup tips
I didn’t like Vauban last year, and I still think he’s too slow. Mind you, there is a distinct lack of horses with faster times for the Cup distance of 3200 metres in this year’s field, which means we have take a leap of faith with some horses that have never run that far. So, here are my picks:
4 Warp Speed – the Japanese horse, who does have a good 3200-metre time in its recent past. The Japanese come, don’t make a fuss, tend to slip under the radar and have a very good strike rate.
12 Okita Soushi – not a Japanese horse, but Irish-bred and trained by the local trainer Ciaron Maher, who has his stable firing. Like Vauban, this horse ran mid-field last year, but this year he has less, not more, weight, and will be ridden by Jamie Kah. If she can ride the Derby winner with a broken nose, what can’t she do?
13 Onesmoothoperator – an American-bred horse who easily won the Geelong Cup, so is in form. Can run the distance a fair bit faster than the Irish horses, and Craig Williams rides. Ticks all my boxes!
15 Sea King – another international with a very impressive win the Ballarat Cup. And he is a top-notch horse, a bit reminiscent of Gold Trip a few years ago, perhaps.
2 Buckaroo – in form, and impressive in the Caulfield Cup. I respect Chris Waller as a trainer, and this is my pick of his five (!) runners, but I am worried about his ability to run the distance out (Buckaroo’s ability, not Chris Waller’s).
24 Trust in You – and to prove that is truly a global race, I’ll now pick a New Zealander! Again, this Kiwi raider can do the distance close to the time required, and carries next to nothing. You can currently get 100/1, and I’m certain he’s better than that.
23 The Map – an unfancied South Australian horse won the Derby, why can’t one win the Cup? Granted, second in the Adelaide Cup is not the strongest form reference, but in a field where you are struggling to find two-milers, she is one. She may not win, but I reckon she’ll be closer to the winner than the end of the field.
8 Land Legend – another from the stable of Mr Chris Waller, but does have some form over longer distances (just not the Cup distance).
And why haven’t I put in the Sydney Cup winner, Circle of Fire? Well, only two horses have won the Sydney Cup and then the Melbourne Cup in the same year: the equine legends Carbine and Makybe Diva. I don’t think he’s quite in their class, he’s up in weight from the Sydney Cup, and he’s drawn the carpark (the extreme outside barrier). Mark Zahra aboard is a plus, but not enough to outweigh the minuses.
That’s 8 picks. $1 each way on all of them will cost $16. If you put them all in a box trifecta, $12 will get you around 33% of the payout if we have the first three there (the TAB currently estimates the payout for three of those eight filling the first three spots as between $492 and $83,558. Or my favourite exotic is the duet (which involves finding two of the first three horses; it doesn’t matter if you have first and second, first and third, or second and third): spend $14 to box all 8 for a 50% payout. (I’d suggest a 50% duet, and then $1 each way on the others, rather than $28 for 100% duet payout.)
And because I’ve followed Mostly Cloudy (no. 20) for a long time, I’ll put a $1 each way on him too. My head says ‘no’ but my heart won’t forgive me if don’t.
Wishing you all a fabulous Cup Day.
Post script
Warp Speed 2nd and Okita Souchi 3rd – and Warp Speed was so very close. Still, if my picks had to be beaten, what was better than Sheila Laxon’s horse being the one to do it? Another great Cup story. And I’m not complaining: that 8-horse boxed duet paid $54.60 for a 5o% stake. Just had the wrong Kiwi in the trifecta . . .
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